Solarbird (solarbird) wrote,
Solarbird
solarbird

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An interesting white paper and pair of other relevant notes.

This is fairly stiff reading, but interesting nonetheless; it's on the separation of the markets from the real economy, and the de facto replacement of same: The Volatility of an Impossible Object - Artemis Capital Management.

Goldman Sachs thinks the US is pretty likely to jump right off the fiscal cliff. I consider the possibility of, aheh, fiscal retribution in the event of an undesired election outcome. I'm less following the debt ceiling qua debt ceiling as I am the political handling of it and fallout. I have very little - read, no - doubt that should you somehow end up with President-Elect Romney and two GOP houses in Congress that the debt ceiling would be raised without hesitation: yes, I'm calling the Republicans out on that right now. But I do not expect that with an outcome the GOP considers unfortunate.

It's not unlikely this is important: the Iranian currency (the rial) is collapsing under black-market pressure - as in, there are riots. Internal inflation estimates currently range as high as 70%. Please consider this in the context of the Syrian civil war and its rather entirely unwise incursion into Turkish territory today.

Relatedly, a third US aircraft carrier and second amphibious warfare ship will be in the Persian Gulf in about a week. (h/t Straftor via Tyler Durden). This is an unsettling combination.

Echoed via dw:ソ-ラ-バ-ド-のおん. comment count unavailable comments at Dreamwidth.

Tags: economics, politics
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