Goldman Sachs thinks the US is pretty likely to jump right off the fiscal cliff. I consider the possibility of, aheh, fiscal retribution in the event of an undesired election outcome. I'm less following the debt ceiling qua debt ceiling as I am the political handling of it and fallout. I have very little - read, no - doubt that should you somehow end up with President-Elect Romney and two GOP houses in Congress that the debt ceiling would be raised without hesitation: yes, I'm calling the Republicans out on that right now. But I do not expect that with an outcome the GOP considers unfortunate.
It's not unlikely this is important: the Iranian currency (the rial) is collapsing under black-market pressure - as in, there are riots. Internal inflation estimates currently range as high as 70%. Please consider this in the context of the Syrian civil war and its rather entirely unwise incursion into Turkish territory today.
Relatedly, a third US aircraft carrier and second amphibious warfare ship will be in the Persian Gulf in about a week. (h/t Straftor via Tyler Durden). This is an unsettling combination.