Solarbird (solarbird) wrote,
Solarbird
solarbird

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the wreckage at the end of the day

Today's fall of 733 points in the DJIA was the 2nd largest by point total ever, just a bit behind the 29 September drop of 777.68 points. By percentage, it makes the top ten at 9th worst (7.87%), just below the week after the Crash of '87. Other than those two dates in 1987 (the Crash itself, and the week after), all other worse dates are from before 1933. (Data from Wikipedia, here.)

The S&P 500, a much broader index than the Dow Industrials, actually did worse, falling just over 9%, to 907.94 - a 42% decline since October 7th last year, its highest close. The TSX lost 631.81 points, down nearly 6.4%. US Treasuries sold off much of the day, again, as cash continues to be hoarded, but late buying ended up pushing end-of-day yields very slightly down.

Most of this is on bad news; the Baltic Dry Index, a measurement of shipping activity, has augured in, with banks doing very, very little of the necessary lending. Various people suggest that hedge funds are imploding, with each implosion setting off another round of implosions. And consumers are running scared, for good reason.

It's almost certainly meaningless that Mondays' bounce started the instant the major averages hit their 1987-1995 trendline, but I mention it anyway. It's also too early to call this the shortest damn Wave 4 ever, but the five-day charts do show a very clear head-and-shoulders. Well, okay, it's not as clean on the NASDAQ, but on the Dow and S&P500, it's nearly picture-perfect.

In social mood update news, Andrew Sullivan thinks that if he wins (as I've been saying for some time that he will), Senator Obama will get to be a Depression president. Isn't that delightful.

As a silver lining, oil closed below $75/barrel today in continued anticipation of demand plummet - but with severe negative effects on the TSX and its energy sector. The Canadian dollar has seen a larger swing down than I anticipated on the problems in the energy sector. This timing is extremely problematic in that it will hurt a broad spectrum of energy efforts, making recovery later more difficult. And finally, in not at all good news, the TED spread did not decline at all during the day, staying within a very high trading range throughout. The LIBOR is down, but not significantly as of yet. They're both still off their peaks, but far, far, far into crazy territory.

eta: Read National Review White House Correspondent Byron York try to blame it all on minorities. Watch New York Magazine correspondent Matt Taibbi lay on with the smackdown. See Byron York EJECT EJECT EJECT. (Seen previously, thanks kathrynt for making me actually read it.)
Tags: economics
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