ソラバドのほん: Life in the Convergence Zone

Kirkland Wednesday Market!

2008-07-23T19:33:52Z

I'm off to the Kirkland Wednesday Market at 111 Park Lane, Kirkland. I've never been to this one before, so I'm nervous. I'm getting there early for setup time and warmup, and I should start around 2PM. Wish me luck! ^_^

hm.

2008-07-22T19:34:59Z

An idle thought: coal futures are sharply down. Oil futures are down sharply again too. Supply has not really increased, and while there's some funny business with speculation and market interference against speculation going on in oil, and futures contracts are already entering the weak-demand autumn season for oil, I don't know that any of that is going on in coal.

So ticking off the various possibilities, I'm starting to wonder whether there's been a quiet cancellation of a lot of industrial projects out there in the background. (The manufacturing survey was not good, but I'm wondering whether the cancellations hit a critical mass.)

No actual data for this. Just a thought.

shoot me

2008-07-22T18:44:10Z

I can't even write a goddamn three-chord punk song right. It's got four chords now. Shoot me.

D'Merle or C.F. Martin

2008-07-22T00:52:59Z

Anybody know where I can get D'Merle (formerly D'Angelico) bronze mandolin strings? Or C.F. Martin without having to special order? I've called the usual places (Lark in the Morning, Trading Musician, Dusty Strings, Mills Music) and have thus far found no joy except for a single set of Martin at Mills. I've had them order a second so I can have two sets - I'm not going into a performance without backup strings anymore - but I'd rather not have to do special orders.

That certainly could've gone worse; also, tonight's Tricky Pixie

2008-07-21T08:12:28Z

So I got down to the shops and discovered O HAI STAGE AND BAND AND AMPS, not on the calendar, and they've moved some things around so the good spot under the tree isn't available anymore. So I was What! Gir! and they were "technically it's not us, and no, you can't stand at the end of the table." And they made me go face a road in the parking lot, which I tried for like three songs and then said "screw this" and moved over to the other side of the traffic island at least facing part of the market. But I still had to compete with the stage act, which was loud enough to be a problem.

I tried what I could with my flute set, but that mostly failed, so then I got out the mandolin and started playing, and then got just a little annoyed and decided THE PARK IS MINE or at least this corner of the market, and started playing like that was actually true, and as loudly as I could...

...and it worked. I actually took over that part of the market, at least while on mandolin. It was kinda awesome in that omg-I-can't-believe-this-is-working kind of way. It cost me four strings (!ouch! !ouch! !ouch! !ouch!), but it turned a crap and nearly-abourtive day into a genuine success.

As for tonight's Tricky Pixie show, there aren't a lot of audiences who will deliver five-part layered harmony singalong - at least, not outside Wales - but tonight's audience did. That was pretty epic, and I was proud to be a part of it. Good show all around, really; the room, acoustically, was a bit of a problem (way too live) but the sound crew did good job of dealing with it, and the band was nicely on. Plus it's just nice to see s00j and stealthcello and Alec and everybody ^_^. Alec also gave me some suggestions for more durable mandolin strings. I'll apparently be needing them. *^_^*;;

Off to play!

2008-07-20T18:27:54Z

Off to play - Lake Forest Park, noon-2ish. Wish me luck for moneys!

Avatar: The Last Airbender: "Sozen's Comet"

2008-07-20T04:02:23Z

If the two-hour series finale for Avatar: The Last Airbender, "Sozen's Comet," doesn't win a goddamn fleet of awards, something is horribly, horribly wrong. Hugo nominators - which means you, all you members of the World Science Fiction Society and Worldcon attendees - I am looking very hard in your direction. Remember this when filling out your ballots next year. All of you.

On the other hand (dammit I'm posting a lot today)

2008-07-20T00:27:28Z

I got asked to play the Kirkland Wednesday Market this, um, Wednesday. 111 Park lane, Kirkland, 2pm. Directions here. It's just another market gig, not a stage performance, but the whole being asked part is pretty awesome.

FISA post-mortem, part one: personal performance

2008-07-19T22:59:29Z

I think this post-mortem is going to span a couple of posts. I could be wrong, but we'll see. I'll write them as they come to mind. This is the first, a personal-performance post-mortem.

One of the key aspects to any campaign of any sort in a democratic republic is the building of large-scale popular support for any side of any cause. One of the problems with the mainstream media is a continuing and callous disregard for the truth, substituting in its place a laughable expression of "balance," where any two sides of any argument are equally valid, or, in the political media, the stuffing of any reality into the same small set of basic stories the media have been telling about politics in the US for the last 30-plus years. Another is in the control by major news organisations by a rather limited set of individuals and groups who contribute so much to the political class.

The web has been touted as a necessarily replacement, or, at least, provoker of reform. And that potential is actual; it's had a real effect, though not nearly as much of one as one might have hoped as yet. Reporters - particularly the stars - are getting a lot more direct and confrontational reaction, with bloggers and the like taking apart the bullshit in their stories in ways they've not been seeing in some time - at least since the major consolidations happened. They don't like it, but so far, they don't dislike it enough - or rather are not affected by it enough - to change how they behave. C.f. the entire illegal domestic propaganda scandal, to this day as far as I know completely not covered by the television media, still by far the single largest source of news for Americans. And that made the New York Times, the embodiment of establishment print media. It's shameful, but they've successfully ignored the story to death.

There are a couple of ways the interactive, internet-based medium of blogging can create actual effect. One can build up a large direct audience (c.f. Greenwald, Sullivan, Redstate, Balloon Juice, and so on), or one can get by on a smaller core readership if you can establish your messages as memes - maybe only so many people read you, but they pick up the message, and repeat it, carrying on to others. Then at least some percentage of those people must act.

This is what I was referring to when I mentioned earlier, immediately after the FISA failure, that I do not matter. I'm quite capable of laying out the data, explaining it, and putting dots together to form a conclusion. I have a depressingly good track record at this, if I might take a moment to compliment myself. But being right is completely irrelevant in this type of situation if you can't prompt others to act with you, or, better, prompt others to prompt still other people to do so.

I have quite solidly demonstrated that I am incapable of doing either, and for that, I apologise. Yes, in the 90s, I had some success with a very small, very tightly focused mailing list that you couldn't get on if you didn't promise to pass the data along to organisations which could act on it. I was able to help shape a local media message with some of this data, and I was able to provide information to groups of of people already set up to be actors on these topics. But that was, for the most part, a collection of already-active groups who simply didn't have the intelligence-gathering capabilities I had. I've been unable to replicate that success, or build either of the two new types.

First, I've been entirely incapable of building a readership large enough to matter. Or rather, I should say, I haven't been attractive enough on these topics to build one. I've stayed at or under 350 unique hits per page now for two years, with surprisingly little fluctuation. I don't know what percentage of those viewers actually read these things, or just skim, or are just here for the flower pictures, or economics, or whatever. And a tiny, tiny percentage - I'd say somewhere on the order of 3-5% - actually take action. (This is in terms of what I really know, what people have told me, and such.) This could be a higher number, invisibly to me.

I've similarly failed to present information in such a way that causes that information to be spread online, which for these purposes is where it matters. (Talking about this with friends over beer is nice, but doesn't really advance the meme much, as it certainly dies there.) As far as I can tell, only 1-2% or so of the people reading these writings ever pass them on to anyone else; links back in my friendslist are exceedingly rare, and I don't see the readership growth I would see if this were going on substantially more frequently than I realise. In short, it's simply not happening enough to matter.

I'm more than willing to take a substantial portion of the blame here, in that I can present the data as much as I want, but I clearly have no idea how to push the psychological buttons necessary to provoke the right kinds of reaction. This doesn't surprise me, for reasons I won't get into here; suffice to say that I'm well aware of this problem.

I had, on the other hand, hoped that the facts of the matter, presented reasonably clearly and well-sourced, would be enough to convince others to act on their own. Clearly, for most people, this hasn't been the case. I can think of several possible reasons for this:

People think I'm making things up, panicky, or simply overreacting. I know this is true in the case of some readers. I have a long history of providing links back to my sources; I can't make up the minds of other people for them. I explain myself as best I can, but I can't overcome resistance to data in peoples' minds.
People in my readership understand and actively support what's going on. I again know this is true for at least some of my readers.
People in my readership understand what's going on, oppose it, but feel any action they could individually take is pointless. This is self-defeating, particularly since if all they do is act on their own, it's pretty much true. That's where the meme thing comes in. But I don't know what I can do about it, since, demonstrably, I am not capable of triggering relay of the data.
People in my readership understand what's going on, oppose it in theory, but will not be prompted to act until they feel they, themselves, are personally threatened. This is also something I know to be true for at least some portion of my readership. As I consider actions, rather than statements, the most important measure of someone's position (c.f. my distaste for the Democratic Party as an organisation), I personally interpret this as most people being basically okay with the situation as it stands. It may not be the preferred state, but it's a reasonable state.

I'm sure there are others, and I imagine some of these other reasons will be mentioned in comments. But these are the ones which I either know outright to be true, or which seem highly plausible.

In summary, the key takeaway points for me personally are:

I have been unable to provoke significant action with the methodology which best suits my talents.
I have similarly been unable to provoke propagation of data with that methodology.
The actions I am protesting themselves, even when well-documented, are not sufficiently important to the overwhelming majority of my readership to provoke either of these reactions.

My time spent working on these issues has not, I suppose, been completely wasted; if nothing else, I can look back at it and know that I did everything I personally could. However, I unfortunately do not see any way that I can actually fix any of these situations. I'd be a disaster at attempting to be a political leader; my largely rationalist forms of argument are nearly useless outside of geekdom and I despise the pick-your-tribe-to-pick-your-truth bullshit model of most political campaigns. Essentially, I really just don't have anywhere to go here. Or, to stay on theme, I have no forward-moving action items in this section.

Other people's music

2008-07-19T19:10:09Z

daspatrick's band The Popular Monsters are playing a show at The Mix in Georgetown (in south Seattle) on August 27^th at 8pm. They also have a CD and a very cool T-shirt. You should go.

106mpg subcompact

2008-07-19T18:04:28Z

I've posted about this before, but maybe they actually have this working at range now. We'll see in 2009 in India, at least. These guys have been promising cars based on this compressed-air engine in the two-year timeframe for over a decade, but this is the first time I've seen a one-year timeframe announcement for actual production of a vehicle, even in test quantities.

Hellboy 2: The Suckening

2008-07-19T05:46:29Z

Hellboy 2 (which I ended up going to against my better judgement) would have been a lot better if 1) the wrong people hadn't won (as so far as I know only nihilistic_kid has pointed out in review form) and 2) it wasn't a sanctimonious, depressing, hypocritical, desperately derivative pile.

Looked pretty good, though. I liked the bits with the gears. But even with that I spent about 2/3rds of the movie thinking, "I hate this movie and I want to go home now," over and over and over again.

Off to give the Country Village/Bothell market another try

2008-07-18T17:48:13Z

Off to give the Country Village/Bothell Market another try. Wish me luck. ^_^

post-mortem coming, I want to post this already.

2008-07-18T17:18:01Z

I'm writing a short FISA post-mortem - and that was the post of opening this window to write a post, even - but I'm not getting to it quickly enough, so here, have this for the moment instead:

Glenn Greenwald analysies a new decision on indefinite detentions from the 4^th circuit appellate court, ruling that "the President can order anyone in the U.S. imprisoned in a military brig as an 'enemy combatant' — even if they have never fought on a battlefield or with a foreign power against the U.S. Rather, mere accusations by the President of 'terrorism' are sufficient to justify the indefinite incarceration of such an individual as an 'enemy combatant,' who is then denied basic Constitutional guarantees." The decision states that such detentions can be indefinite in length (including, specifically, decades). It also states that US citizens are not exempt from this in any way:

...it is likely that the constitutional rights our court determines exist, or do not exist, for al-Marri [the defendant] will apply equally to our own citizens under like circumstances... the protections we declare to be unavailable under the Constitution to al-Marri might likewise be unavailable to American citizens...

He also comments on the politisation of the Justice Department into a personal enforcement and protection arm of the Chief Executive here.

brazilrascal has posted a longish article ("Event Horizon") you should read here, about the near-ritual reversing of roles now underway in the 2008 campaign:

It’s already started. Conservative blogs like Ace of Spades and Michelle Malkin are testing the waters, warning of the impending Obama Socialist-Islamo Negrocracy and its rampant abuse of executive power. Such an unprepared, unstable president might even ingulge in massive wiretap programs free of oversight, or add little notes to laws basically stating that "this holds as the law of the land, unless I disagree at some point in the future" ...

I don’t think it’ll get to a full reversal, however, because liberals and conservatives currently have very different views of what it means to be an opposition party. In fact, it can be safely asserted that the only thing that is more conservative-friendly than a democrat minority is, oddly enough, a democrat majority in legislative affairs. On the other hand, the GOP perfected brinkmanship to a T, blowing up even minor issues to levels of conflict and media attention that put the Cuban Missile Crisis to shame.

And everyone, I think, has already heard about the Bush administration's torture regime was taken directly from 1950s Chinese Communist torture systems designed to elicit confessions, true and false. So yeah, it was on purpose.

I'm going to be walking away somewhat from most of this for the rest of the year. Everything remaining is going to be election noise, and I frankly can't stand it. I'm not going away; I'll still post if there's some particular new horror, and there certainly will be. I do think that the only election that matters very much at this point is the Chief Executive race, because if you're going to have a king, you're better off having the least bad one, and Senator McCain seems to be doing his best to prepare to be as bad a one as possible. Congress has written itself out of the government, so I don't exactly expect any resistance to any of a Chief Executive McCain's court nominees no matter who is in charge, and that's most of what's left to fight for in the wreckage. I'll have more on this, I suspect but do not promise, in my FISA wrapup post later.

Pledge Now

Funny like three caskets

2008-07-18T15:54:24Z

This report is contested, and I am told (by zarq in comments) that the Yahoo! editorial (and several other sources I saw with the same information) are all incorrect - the joke was not told this year, but 22 years ago in a Senatorial campaign.

Sadly all too revealing...

Did you hear the one about the woman who is attacked on the street by a gorilla, beaten senseless, raped repeatedly and left to die? When she finally regains consciousness and tries to speak, her doctor leans over to hear her sigh contently and to feebly ask, 'Where is that marvelous ape?'
&mdash Senator John McCain, on the campaign trail, last week

(Spotted via emrecom.)

pages left open

2008-07-18T06:41:02Z

Okay, so, we're finally getting that oil correction I've been talking about for a while, even if it came later than I'd imagined. Watch for exultations about how everything is better now; these are wrong, but you'll see them anyway. Interestingly, on Tuesday, there was a reasonable chance of an outright market crash of several hundred points - but it didn't happen, which means the situation is still fundamentally orderly, and we're in an upwards snapback correction.

Unfortunately, the fundamental problems are still substantially unaddressed. Merrill Lynch is warning of a global funding crisis. Jim Rogers calls the attempted Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac bailout a "disaster." Mish, similarly, has harsh words again. He's not fond of the recent selective extra enforcement of anti-shorting rules, either, wondering if the stocks not targeted have been "tossed to the wolves."

Chris Whalen at RGE Monitor, on the other hand, thinks Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should just be nationalised. Now. On the opposite side, Money Week thinks that a bailout would doom the Dollar. Global Macro EconoMonitor talks about how we got here.

On that subject, capital flows reports for May were inconclusive. The thesis that the US will still be seen as a possible site of flight-to-safety, while arguably crazy, is supported, however. Brad Setser talks quite a bit about this here.

No big swing in the latest H.3 Reserves data; still hugely negative, still surviving entirely on loans, but very modestly improved from worst-in-history lows.

Dr. Roubini has an overview column describing the financial crisis as the worst since the Great Depression, setting up the worst recession in decades. He's been more ahead of the curve than anybody else I read on a lot of this stuff, so unfortunately, you should pay attention to him. Note that the TED spread continues its latest spike up.

Minyanville's Kevin Depew thinks we're fucked, and talks about media coverage of the Great Depression during the Great Depression. His column on the crisis of the real is also interesting.

Here's the rumour du jour, and I note this is only a rumour: This blogger who says they work for a nonprofit says in a coordinated action on Monday, most or all of the major mortgage lenders stopped doing mortgage work-outs and moved to an aggressive foreclosure stance. In later posts, they've stood by the claim. I have no confirmation. I do know that a lot of banks have been forestalling on foreclosures for a long time, trying to keep the houses off their books.

Uplake to Aurora Village via Ballanger and NE 205th

2008-07-17T23:53:25Z

Over the winter and spring, somebody - state, King County, Shoreline, I don't know which - put in sidewalking along NE 205th under I-5, making I-5 at least theoretically traversable in something other than a car. So today I finally biked to Costco to test the route.

Our house down Goat Trail Road to Ballanger way is trivial, extremely low traffic and while not a foot path per sé, a lot of people walk it and that's expected. I bike it a lot, it's a known quantity.

Ballanger Way already had a paved path (I wouldn't go so far as to call it a "sidewalk;" parts of it are proper sidewalk, most of it is paved trail near the road) all the way up to Ballanger proper, but this is the first time I've actually biked it. It's pretty reasonable. It's also almost entirely uphill all the way, so while it's only a couple of miles, it's a couple of miles with more exertion than you might be expecting. Still, none of it's steep, so while it does go on a while, it's not at all bad. Total distance from my house to Thriftway was almost exactly three miles, and I ran into several other trail/sidewalk users along the way. Ballanger is busy enough that it's not a great recreational bike, but it's not annoying.

When Ballanger Way turns into NE 205th, the road gets much wider, and, after a section of strip mall (the one with the Thriftway I like), we reach the new section of paving and the I-5 cross. The crossing is signaled at all points, and requires two crossings of NE 205th, five or six (marked, crosswalked) crossings of freeway on-and-off-ramps, and, of course, biking along 205th under the freeway.

This was much less bad than I expected. The new sidewalks are appropriately wide, and the traffic lanes are reasonably well spaced from actual traffic flow in most, if not all, cases. I wouldn't consider it fun, but it seemed reasonable - and, again, much better than expected - from a safety standpoint. As a side note, I crossed 205th at one point, followed by a suited man, who, when he caught up to me, laughed and said "I fondle you!" And I was in process of an um what no before realising he had a very thick accent, was pointing at the crosswalk, and meant "I follow you." Which was of course fine.

A long section of NE 205th also got new sidewalking on the north side, in an area previously unsidewalked, to link up with the existing sidewalking further west. This sidewalking was also of reasonable quality for biking. It's not particularly pleasant to bike along it thanks to 205th, but I was expecting worse. This is also almost entirely uphill on the way towards Costco, and that part is no fun.

Then you hit the old "sidewalk" on the western half of the NE205th link, and it blows. To be fair, it's flat, and it's reasonably clear, tho' this time of year you're seeing the inevitable blackberry encroachment. But it's quite a bit narrower than the new sidewalks, and the lane spacing puts cars much closer than I would like. You do have a solid curb as elevation spacing, but it's far and away the most unpleasant part of the ride.

Then you reach the Interurban Trail intersection with NE 205th, cross the street south to it, and it's off-road trail for a couple of surprisingly steep blocks. I wasn't expecting that; it took the wind out of me, and I ended up walking the bike up part of it. This is in woods, however, so it was cool and pleasant, even walking the bike.

Once you pop out of the woods, the Interurban Trail goes street-trail for a bit. It's well-signed, and you can use the sidewalks or the bike lane, either way. I chose the bike lane, which didn't give me any problems; the street is not particularly high traffic and the bike lane is wide and well-marked, up to the point where it reconnects with the next leg of off-road Interurban Trail heading south at the Aurora Village Transit Centre, which is also where you find Costco.

Total trip length at this point only five miles, but they're five mostly uphill miles, which wasn't the most fun in the world. But unlike every other east-west route I've tried through this area, an occasional biker in reasonable condition can do this one and not die, which is a massive, massive improvement. This route is incomparably easier than the second-best east-west route I'd tried and laid out on Bikely, which I wouldn't even attempt going west.

On the ride back, I stayed on the south side of NE 205th as long as there were sidewalks, which eliminated half of the worst part of the to-Costco leg of the trip, crossing back over at the entrance to the Holyrood Cemetery. Next time, I'll cross at that intersection on the way, too; the sidewalk is wider and better separated from the road, so much more enjoyable.

The rest is as described before, except for one change: the ride back mostly consisted of coasting. Seriously, I spent more time tapping brakes to keep my speed under control than I spent pedaling to gain speed, at least until hitting Goat Trail Road again and having to climb the hill back home. This gave me a lovely chance to rest up for going up the hill at the end.

Total round-trip biking time 1hr 5 minutes; a better biker could and would do it much faster; second time through I'd also do it faster, since I'd know what I was doing and could build up more speed where safe to do so. The Ballanger portion alone would separate out to no more than 20 minutes each way, and the only reason it takes that long is Goat Trail Road is pretty steep coming home on a bike.

So I'd recommend the path to Ballanger (for, say, runs to Thriftway) to just about anybody; I biked past parents with strollers, joggers, walkers, and two other people on bikes - and the path all the way to the Interurban Trail and Aurora Village/Aurora Village P&R to anybody who feels reasonably confident on a bicycle. I wouldn't recommend it for kids - crossing I-5, while now possible, is still pretty complex, and that second half of the NE 205th leg is just too close to the traffic lane for me to feel comfortable in that situation. But it'd be fine for teenagers.

Little White Bonnet

2008-07-15T15:10:00Z

Little White Bonnet

here, have my LJ's RSS feed in retro text art format

2008-07-14T19:53:09Z

YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE-HAW!

2008-07-14T15:42:33Z

Everything is catching, yes, everything is catching on fiiiiiiiiiire!

Okay so this bailout - this blank cheque - that the Fed wants to back Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac is worth between US$500B and US$1.6T, and probably closer to the top end, but who knows for sure? Nobody! Certainly not Congress, which probably makes it more, not less, likely that they'll sign that cheque and send it off right away.

This is happening because China and a bunch of other Important ~~People~~ ~~Countries~~ Entities own Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds (worth US$12T or so, I think) in truly large quantities. When the bond and forex markets figure out exactly how big a hook this is for US debt - and it's not gonna take very long, the overnighters figured it out already, it's the US equity people who are without clue as yet - the shitsplosion is going to be truly epic. Today, tho', people are piling into bonds.

Oh, meanwhile, all the mortgage rules changed back to old school this morning, so loans just got a lot harder to get (good) all at once (not as good, but what can you do?) and omg late (barn doors, horses got out, temporal inversion, all that) and residential property just got ~~marked to reality~~ a lot cheaper as of about an hour ago, particularly in whatever was left of the boom states. Here's the story! @wheeeeeeeeeee! To quote one of the regulars on one of the financial forums I read, "Nothing screams 'solid fundamentals' like emergency bailout proposals. My confidence is maximized."

Fed bans risky mortgage practices
By Ruth Mantell
Last update: 10:57 a.m. EDT July 14, 2008

Marketwatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- As the economy continues to suffer from the housing downturn and fallout from risky mortgages, the Federal Reserve Board on Monday voted unanimously to bar lenders from making higher-priced mortgages without regard to a consumers' ability to repay. Regarding higher-priced loans, the Fed's new rules also prohibit lenders from: relying on income or assets that it does not verify to determine repayment ability; imposing prepayment penalties if the payment can change during the initial four years; and making a loan without establishing an escrow account for property taxes and homeowners' insurance for first-lien loans.

hello

2008-07-14T06:54:03Z

Hello!

But they're well-capitalised

2008-07-14T06:38:13Z

Oh look, the Fed granted authority to for the NY Fed to lend to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac "should such lending prove necessary." Also, the Treasury Secretary is asking Congress for "authority to buy unlimited stakes in and lend to the companies." Apparently "Freddie Mac is scheduled to sell $3 billion in short-term notes tomorrow, and Paulson's comments indicate a concern about a collapse in private investors' willingness to fund the firms."

The last dregs of FISA

2008-07-12T17:59:18Z

Okay, so the ACLU is running a national ad against FISA: you can sign up to have your name on the list of protestors. Seriously.

Over at Salon, Glenn Greenwald describes how the latest revelations of the American torture regime are not somehow specific and separate from the creation of the lawless surveillance state; it's all part of the same agenda of the political class placing itself above the law - and also gives a variety of specific examples of the political press continuing to fulfill its role of covering for the entire process. At The Washington Monthly, Kevin Drum reports how the new FISA surveillance regime will hamstring reporters, destroying their ability to work with many categories of contacts. Wired's Threat Level has a column on Mark Klein, the whistleblower whose testimony blew open the deeply criminal - but now retroactively legalised! - domestic spying programme, calls this the creation of an infrastructure for a police state.

By the way, not that it's a sideshow - because it's not, in any way - the International Rescue Committee and Red Cross have both decided that the American torture programme is unambiguously, clearly, and specifically a torture programme in every sense of the word. Stealing from Glenn, quoting Jonathan Turley on MSNBC - he's a law professor:

[The IRC] is the world's preeminent institution on the conditions and treatment of prisoners and specifically what constitutes torture. And the important thing here is they're saying it's not a close question, that as many of us, and there are many, many of us who have argued for years that this is clearly, unmistakably a torture program; the Red Cross is saying the same.

The problem for the Bush administration is they perfected plausible deniability techniques. They bring out one or two people that are willing to debate on cable shows whether water-boarding is torture. And it leaves the impression that it's a close question. It's not. It's just like the domestic surveillance program that the a federal court just a week ago also said was not a close question. These are illegal acts. These are crimes. And there weren't questions before and there's not questions now as to the illegality...

I never thought I would say this, but I think it might, in fact, be time for the United States to be held internationally to a tribunal. I never thought, in my lifetime, that I would say that, that we have become like Serbia, where an international tribunal has to come to force us to apply the rule of law. I never imagined that a Congress, a Democratic-led Congress would refuse to take actions, even with the preeminent institution of the Red Cross saying, this is clearly torture and torture is a war crime. They are still refusing to take meaningful action.

And The New York Times has an editorial on routine government searching of laptop data at the borders, how nothing has been done about it, and something should. Somehow, I don't think the Congress that just passed the FISA abomination will act. Not that it would be paid attention if it did.

Oh, and they're also blowing off the Supreme Court ruling on greenhouse gasses and the EPA. Kind of like how they're ignoring the habeas corpus ruling, if the Guardian's report on the continuing use of navy vessels as secret prison ships is accurate.

I haven't seen a signing statement issued on FISA. I'd think you'd have seen one by now.

No Woodinville market for me today

2008-07-12T16:22:20Z

Ra is out in full glory, and the Woodinville market has no shade opportunities, so I'll not be at that market today - the instruments just won't stay in tune in that environment. Next week at Bothell (Friday) and Lake Forest Park (Sunday), tho' - they have shade.

Quickie econonotes

2008-07-11T23:55:59Z

Massive stock and bonds selloff today; there was a shriekingly temporary pip to positive late in the day on a rumour, that the Fed was going to open some sort of new lending facilities to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It was irrelevant, as they can go to the discount window like everybody else, but no other bailouts are coming. In theory. Also, the dollar fell sharply, as per the previous bear flag commentary. This is a very bad combination of factors.

IndyMac FSB, a major California lender, is now in FDIC receivership. "At the time of closing, IndyMac Bank, F.S.B. had about $1 billion of potentially uninsured deposits held by approximately 10,000 depositors. The FDIC will begin contacting customers with uninsured deposits to arrange an appointment with an FDIC claims agent by Monday. Customers can contact the FDIC for an appointment using the toll-free number above. The FDIC will pay uninsured depositors an advance dividend equal to 50 percent of the uninsured amount." Estimates are that paying off insured accounts and handling the bank collapse will run between $4 and $8 billion, which is 7%-14% of FDIC funds. Ignoring inflation, this is the second largest bank failure ever; including it, it's the largest since the S&L collapse in the 1980s. A few more go up like this and we're talking real money.

We're also talking about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac going under, and Dr. Roubini at RGE Monitor, who has an exceptionally good track record on this crisis, has a lot to say about that, and the inadvisability of a bailout.

No link, but technically, the market is due for a retrace rally soon, assuming nothing explodes, like, say, Iran. (c.f. All Systems Go for War, and Iran, Israel, and Missiles. $200+/barrel oil, anyone?) Meanwhile, see credit. See credit deflate. See M2 decline. See Phil Gramm make a fool out of himself, embarrassing the McCain campaign.

Meanwhile, over at the CFR, Brad Setzer talks about China as a creditor. Oil spiked up sharply again to near-record levels of last week; demand, regardless of this is expected to continue to rise, due to a large combination of factors including subsidies and the growing Chinese and Indian middle classes. And Dr. Roubini discusses other people now estimating credit losses from the financial crisis to be US$1.6 trillion (with a T).