Solarbird (solarbird) wrote,

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an interesting divergence

Just poking around at some technicals charts, looking for support levels and things like that. And this is where the divergence in the DOW vs. NASDAQ vs. S&P500 over the last few months is really important, because the DOW has dropped well below technical support and the next meaningful layer is at 17,100 or so.

Meanwhile, the NASDAQ is currently just now hitting a strong level of support set up in May and June. It's an extensive layer of support. But...

The S&P 500 has fallen well below that and is sitting on weak support set back in March, and possible weak support from a couple of years ago.

Now, technicals, intrinsically, are voodoo and bullshit. But - if you're new to me talking about this - so many market traders believe in them that they've historically been important solely because of that. And of the various technicals out there, support layers are the least bullshitty, because they do at least indicate where a lot of buying decisions vs. price were made in the past - they are, pretty much definitionally, areas of extensive sales and purchases of stock, since all transactions have both a buyer and seller.

Which means a lot of people have a recent history of deciding to buy at these levels (on the way down, possibly limiting downward motion if they'd make that same decision again), or sell on these levels (on the way up, limiting upside if, again, same decisions are made).

But seeing the broader markets at odds like this is kind of strange. There have been some areas of outright divergence over the last few weeks, mostly segment-based, and I'm just not sure what to make of that. I've always thought the DJIA was too small a sample for the modern era, but at the same time, I've never had extensive divergence to support my dissatisfaction. I wonder if I might yet see it.

Also posted to ソ-ラ-バ-ド-のおん; comment count unavailable comments at Dreamwidth.

Tags: economics
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