Solarbird (solarbird) wrote,

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commercial credit risk going parabolic

This is a little less coherent than I'd hoped, sorry; I wanted to make sure it got posted tonight instead of delayed yet again!

Commercial real-estate credit risks - which is "up" in these graphs - appears to be going parabolic. This implies that something's exploding, possibly two government-sponsoured GSEs with initials FM. The residential real-estate CDO/ABX markets have lost their small recovery almost entirely. The Alt-A implosion is starting to hit as some of the worst of that sector is already exploding badly and wrecking attempts to 'salvage' what's left of subprime value. C.f. the start of the downgrades avalanche on alt-A securities. (Regular readers will recognise a familiar - and previously-credited - chart.)

In similar and related "wuh oh" moments, agency bond spreads are also jumping. That's important because it raises concerns that the Fannie May/Freddie Mac bailout plan - not yet triggered, but give it time, it will be - was forced by overseas governments. Not helping: 2007-originated prime, as in prime, as in best grade mortgages are starting to fail at disturbing rates. This is no doubt related to how nearly one-third of all homeowners who bought a house in the last five years owes more on their loan than the value of the house. Fun!

Oh, housing inventory reports often don't include bankruptcy bank possessions, particularly in places like California. This makes the real number worse than reported, and again implies a longer time to recovery.

Dr. Roubini posted a column a week(ish) ago about why the recession will be global, and the worst since the Great Depression, but not as bad as said depression. However, it has a lot of data on credit, the banks and banking system, and is worth reading. He's still strongly in stagflation camp, but contraction in the M3 ("broad money") supply is starting to kick in pretty fiercely, adding credibility to the deflationista case. "Doctor Doom" is starting to sound like the optimist.

Kevin Depew writes again that the word of the moment is frugality, which is bad news for a discretionary-spending economy. Mish had similar commentary but I dropped the link - sorry. And Paul Farrell writes a rather angry column about how much Americans love their war economy and is going to keep liking it right up until it can't.
Tags: economics
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