Solarbird (solarbird) wrote,

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but what does it all mean?

Good evening, Cascadia! Quite the week, wasn't it? Enjoy a roundup I put together over order-in. Mmmm, pizza.

Canadian indices played catch-up in losses to American markets, making up for the Canada Day holiday. US indices fell for yet another day, despite what Hedgie is quite certain was an entirely synthetic ramp job towards the end of the day. However, despite all this, there is still an expectation of the Bank of Canada raising rates. Canadian dollar bulls, take note.

For the record, the 200-day moving average has been crossed by the 50-day moving average on the S&P 500 composite index, which is what's known as a "death cross" and is highly reliable in indicating a long-term negative trend. The 20-week/50-week moving averages have not yet crossed. Quint at Minyanville is joining Karl Denninger in talking about an S&P500 target of 840. Superbears are starting to talk about a DJIA below 1000, but those are superbears.

Two key notes from today were the US jobs report and forward manufacturing orders. The jobs report was worse than expected - not overall, which implies some retention of temporary census workers pas expectation, but in private hiring and labour participation. In particular teens can't find jobs. The birth-death model added 147,000 fantasy jobs, again, not seasonally adjusted, do not just subtract. See also this disturbingly updated chart from Calculated Risk, as well as Mish's usual roundup.

Forward manufacturing orders fell 1.4% vs. expectations of a 0.5% fall; US car sales were quite slow in June, as were US home sales, where the 30% drop was just stunning. The Baltic Dry Index continues its resolute decline, well out of channel, but still well above the post-crash lows.

US personal bankruptcies continue to climb, up to levels not seen since before the bankruptcy "reform" that make bankruptcy so much more difficult; this will probably be near or set a record.

Zero Hedge has an article on asset liquidations, particularly considering yesterday's gold and currency moves. It's a followup to this previous article, posted also yesterday.

In looting news, Bloomberg discusses how many junk bonds the Fed bought from Bear Stearns - tens of billions of supposedly AAA-rated bonds, pure junk. Everyone's pretending this was an accident. You can go read my opinions about that made then, if you care, but c'mon. Also, The Telegraph has an article on the "triple whammy" facing the Western middle class.

In Asia, China and Taiwan have signed an important trade agreement, reducing tension in the Taiwanese straits. This happens as China's manufacturing falls for the second month in a row, and Bank of China halts trading as it find itself in urgent need to raise capital.

No US banks were shut down by FDIC action today, probably due to the July 4th weekend. Enjoy the holiday, and if you get a chance, I'll be playing out at Everett Market in Everett Marina starting at 1pm on Sunday. C'mon by!
Tags: economics
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